The right steps were taken

Scientific experts agree that declaring the pandemic stage for the “Swine flu” and advising to produce pandemic vaccines were absolutely the proper things to do given the science and technology at our disposal when the pandemic emerged. As early as March 2009, it was clear that the “Swine flu” had pandemic potential: it was a newly introduced virus in the human population that didn’t react with antibodies to any recent seasonal influenza virus strains. What about lethality? Even though early reports from Mexico suggested a high mortality rate, when the virus hit the US in April it did seem relatively benign. Yet, the level of the virus’s lethality in April is not what mattered. The crucial point is that it takes six months to make useful quantities of vaccine. That means one has to predict the virus’s next move, which is currently impossible. Influenza viruses may readily evolve, especially when they blast through millions of individuals of a newly invaded host. Nobody knew in April last year what “Swine flu” would be going to look like six months down the line, at the start of the winter flu season in the northern hemisphere. It could have turned very nasty – and not to have vaccine ready for that eventuality would have been unacceptable. Given these constraints, health agencies did not overreact. What if the virus had become highly lethal and they had decided not to have vaccine produced? A policy of ‘better safe than sorry’ and “prepare for the worst while hoping for the best” is the only responsible way to act.