Results of Influenza Risk Assessment Tool

The current overall individual and population health risk to the general public posed by the avian influenza A(H5N1) virus presently spreading in cows, poultry, and other mammals remains low. Systematic comparisons of data related to this avian influenza A(H5N1) virus using the Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) to data from other influenza A viruses has scored this virus's future pandemic potential as "moderate risk" based on information through June 26, 2024. This is similar to previous assessments of earlier avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses.

The IRAT uses expert opinion to evaluate the potential of a representative novel influenza virus to gain the ability for person-to-person spread and the resulting potential public health impact if that were to happen, compared to other viruses evaluated in past IRAT reports. The IRAT does not assess the immediate risk to the public's health, which is unchanged and remains low, and it does not predict future pandemics.

This report summarizes the findings of an IRAT conducted on a recent avian influenza A(H5N1) virus from a human case in Texas (A/Texas/37/2024). The score places the currently circulating avian influenza A(H5N1) virus in the category of "moderate risk" for potential future emergence and public health impact. This is similar to previous assessments of earlier avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses. The scores for this IRAT were submitted June 26, 2024, prior to additional human cases in Colorado. The report was completed expeditiously based on data as of June 26 to inform ongoing preparedness discussions.

During a public health response, the IRAT can be used to assess the appropriateness of the ongoing response efforts and whether additional actions are warranted based on the risk score. The results of this IRAT validate the proactive, coordinated U.S. government response. Assessing risk is an iterative process with new information being assimilated regularly and response activities adjusted as indicated.