ECDC launches RespiCompass, a scenario modelling hub for respiratory diseases

By examining the impact of public health interventions – such as vaccination – on disease burden in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA), RespiCompass provides insights for policy planning. For instance, it addresses questions like ‘What burden of hospitalisations can be expected in winter-spring 2024-2025?’ and ‘What proportion of these hospitalisations can be averted by vaccination?’

‘The platform’s strength lies in its ‘ensemble’ approach, which integrates modelling results from multiple groups to generate stronger, more reliable projections,’ says Piotr Kramarz, ECDC Chief Scientist. ‘Results from RespiCompass can guide health policy decisions on respiratory viruses. It will also strengthen modelling capacity and preparedness in the Member States through fostering collaboration with disease and surveillance experts in the EU/EEA.’

RespiCompass operates in cycles spanning several months. Each cycle begins with identifying key policy questions through collaboration with public health, disease, and modelling experts. To address these questions, sets of assumptions – such as vaccination uptake levels or the rate at which immunity decreases – are defined and shared with external modelling teams. These teams use the assumptions as input for their models, and their results are combined into a single ‘model ensemble’, offering robust insights that account for a range of possible outcomes. Each cycle concludes with an evaluation to refine processes and improve future rounds.

RespiCompass welcomes contributions from all modelling teams for future rounds.

This initiative complements RespiCast, launched in 2023, which provides shorter-term forecasts for respiratory diseases. Together, RespiCompass and RespiCast aim to enhance preparedness and support evidence-based decision-making for managing respiratory diseases in Europe.